Work Packages.
WP1: Coordination and Management
Work Package 1 (WP1) concerns all aspects of project management, coordination, quality assurance, risk management and ethics assessment. It ensures the effective planning, implementation, coordination and achievement of the project activities and success and provides project structure and support to assist decision making, internal and external communication, encourage greater accountability and control, minimize risk, identify, address, and exploit project related opportunities. Furthermore, the WP coordinates the quality control for project output and supports the consortium towards achieving the project objectives.
This WP, led by AUTH, is responsible for:
- Producing a work plan, monitor it and maintain it throughout the life-cycle of the project;
- Coordinating all of the work packages’ activities and orchestrate all these activities throughout all of the phases of the project making sure that the work package teams reach their specific goals and responsibilities across the overall project;
- Producing the terms of reference for the best practice network and for the expansion of the Network and manage and facilitate the communication and discussion among the Project Management Board;
- Organizing the kick-off meeting and plenary meetings, with the contribution of all partners; v) Promote activities and exchange of information and data among the members of the Network;
- Monitoring and evaluate the progress of the project with respect to the defined objectives;
- Elaborating a Risk Management plan that foresees risks, estimates the impacts, and creates response plans to mitigate them;
- Maintaining contact with the European Commission and manage the administrative and financial aspects of the project.
WP2: Evaluation of seasonal and decadal data- definition of climate extreme hotspot regions in the Mediterranean
Work Package 2 (WP2) will create a comprehensive climate database that aspires to be a user-friendly tool (PREVENT eTool) for impact modelers and stakeholders. It will include update seasonal forecasts and decadal predictions from various open sources (COPERNICUS, WMOLC, ECMWF), as well as the ETCCDI extreme indices (drought, extreme temperature and extreme precipitation, heatwaves) will be adjusted for the Mediterranean region. WP2 will spotlight the climate extreme hot spot regions based on the compound negative impact of extremes in the Mediterranean. The limitation of seasonal forecasts and decadal predictions will be quantified using appropriate performance metrics. Within WP2, the PREVENT eTool will provide maps and statistics from extremes indices and improved seasonal and decadal data, drought and extreme temperature maps, as well as statistical graphs that will be easily accessible and understandable by end-users and stakeholders. The results of WP2 will provide the reference basis for the activities in the WPs involved in downscaling (WP3), machine learning techniques (WP4), impact models (WP5), and adaptation (WP6).
In this horizontal WP, we will collect, pre-screen and pre-process all datasets required for the core tasks of the project (downscaling, machine-learning applications, impact modeling, etc.). Based on historical records and the input of all scientific partners and local experts, we will define (in space and time) the case studies that will be further modeled and assessed.
- Support of follow-up WPs in terms of data requirements
- Evaluation of operational seasonal forecasts and decadal predictions focusing on Mediterranean extreme events
- Selection of high-impact events and definition of case studies
- Create an open-access database for the project results
WP3: Advanced Dynamical / Statistical downscaling for improved decadal predictions
Work Package 3 (WP3) will apply dynamical downscaling and statistical methods to improve the skill of decadal predictions of climate extremes. For statistical improvement, WP3 combines well established bias correction methods (delta, scaling and empirical and regression quantile mapping) and the new entry TIN-Copula method that is based on two fundamental aspects: Triangular Irregular Networks and Copulas. WP3 will further develop and apply dynamical downscaling using the WRF climate model driven by existing decadal experiments of different ensemble members for the Mediterranean region. The high-resolution WRF dynamical downscaling model will be used to improve the representation of climate extremes over the climate extreme hotspot regions (WP2). Ultimately, the improved decadal data developed within WP3 will allow the use of high-resolution climate data in impact models (WP5) and adaptation plans (WP6).
Its overall objective is to improve existing methods and traditional modeling approaches for downscaling global models (in our case, seasonal forecasts and decadal predictions), with a focus on the climate extreme hot spot regions and case studies identified in WP2. Such widely-used methods include dynamical and statistical downscaling, as well as, various approaches for bias adjustment. The aforementioned techniques will provide information tailored to the requirements of impact models (WP5).
WP4: Improving seasonal forecasts: Advanced methods for statistical and machine learning prediction - Detection of causal drivers of extremes.
Work Package 4 (WP4) will apply and combine methods to identify the physical drivers and pathways leading to extremes using novel machine learning techniques, such as causal discovery algorithms, Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs), simple linear regression, random forests or gradient boosting regression, and copulas, within a causal framework. This way a validation of dynamical models will be carried out based on their skill in representing causal pathways and teleconnections important for Mediterranean extremes. The impact of climate change on the identified drivers will also be assessed to account for non-stationarities. WP4 will further provide a set of machine learning- based seasonal forecast models for Mediterranean extremes. Those will be used as input for the impact and adaptation models in WP5 and WP6 complementary to existing datasets of seasonal forecasting to assess whether extra skill can be gained with the inclusion of such data-driven methods.
The objectives of WP4 are the following:
- Identify the dominant local and remote seasonal to sub-seasonal drivers of critical hot and dry events in the climate extreme hotspot regions and case studies identified in WP2.
- Evaluate the drivers and pathways captured in operational forecast models and in the highest resolution climate models. Assess the models based on their skill in reproducing such pathways.
- Assess the impact of climate change on the identified drivers.
- Develop data-driven statistical and machine learning-based approaches to optimize seasonal forecasts
WP5: Environmental and Socioeconomic Impacts
Work Package 5 (WP5) will use standard climate data and improved climate data produced in WP2, 3 and 4 as input for impact models and studies in different regions of the Mediterranean. The impact sectors that we will explore are the most relevant environmental and socioeconomic ones for the Mediterranean, including ecology, agriculture, water management, human health, and tourism.
The particular case studies will include estimation of fire risk and identification of atmospheric causal drivers of fire weather; attribution and projection of water balance and hydropower production; seasonal predictions for agriculture and water irrigation needs; improved near-term predictions of a Holiday Climate Index; and estimation of mortality risk and healthcare costs based on weather and climate extremes. The outcomes of WP5 will be useful for stakeholders and end users and will be also used as input for WP6 on Adaptation.
PREVENT aims to extensively use data from other major European Earth Observation programmes apart the Copernicus Climate Change services and the retrieval of climate model output. For example, we plan to use land-use data from Copernicus Land Monitoring Service or consider methodologies that will be compatible with the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) of Copernicus Emergency Management Service (Copernicus EMS).
WP5 will contribute to the accomplishment of the following objectives:
- Prepare the climate data for the impact models and give advice on types of data, timescales, variables to be used
- Identify the impact-relevant regions for each case study/impact model
- Bring together the different environmental and socioeconomical impacts for a holistic assessment of risk for the Mediterranean region under a changing climate
WP6: Prioritization of Adaptation decisions in the Mediterranean climate extreme hot spot regions and case studies
Work Package 6 will enhance the adaptation perspective and the preparedness of Mediterranean countries. Improving the quality of seasonal to decadal predictions is key to supporting farmers adapt to climate variability and change. In this work package, the members of the consortium intend to transform the ensemble of generated predictions into decisions. Considering the dual temporalities (seasonal & decadal), we will investigate two aspects of adaptation that contribute to risk reduction in the selected systems (e.g., forestry for wildfires, agriculture, etc.):
- Building on seasonal forecast, we intend to explore the extent to which the skill of the newly developed models is sufficient to support practitioners in improving seasonal anticipation such as better selecting crops – prior to planting – based on the predicted climatic conditions over the upcoming growing season.
- Building on decision-making under deep uncertainty method and the decadal predictions, the consortium will also investigate the extent to which decision-makers and investors can prioritize their investment in risk reduction measures (e.g., in relation with agriculture: shading, micro-harvesting, soil covering, improved irrigation, etc.). For both aspects, the consortium will conduct consultations with key organizations in the different sectors such as public and private financial institutions in Mediterranean countries, also including a testing and adjusting of the potential solutions to their needs and interests. WP6 will therefore ensure that the seasonal and decadal predictions are streamlined into meaningful adaptive decisions tailored with the latest scientific knowledge and methods in collaboration with and for sectoral stakeholders.
WP6 objectives aim to bridge the gap between climate information and decision-making processes, helping decision- makers and practitioners adapt to climate variability and change more effectively, the main objectives are:
- Demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of PREVENT seasonal and decadal predictions to decision-makers (national and local governments) and practitioners (e.g. farmers, physicians, fire persons).
- Investigate adaptation strategies for risk reduction in systems. The objective is to provide evidence-based recommendations for decision-makers and practitioners on effective adaptation strategies that address climate variability and change in Mediterranean.
- Conduct consultations with practitioner organizations and governments. Through consultations, PREVENT aims to gather valuable insights and feedback from stakeholders, ensuring that the research aligns with their priorities and challenges.
- Design and develop a user-friendly adaptation support tool that consolidates climate and impact information. The tool should consider multiple future scenarios and assess the potential returns of various adaptation measures.
- Test and adjust potential solutions based on stakeholder needs. This objective helps to foster collaboration and partnership between researchers and practitioners in addressing climate risks.
- Identify, test, and share new risk reduction and adaptive measures. The consortium aims to explore and evaluate novel approaches, strategies, and technologies that can enhance climate resilience and reduce vulnerability
WP7: Dissemination and Exploitation
Design of the Dissemination and Exploitation Strategy (WP7) will entail analyzing the available dissemination channels (websites, public events, specialized and general interest magazines, ad-hoc newsletter) to select the most appropriate ones. A specific logo, a website, and a set of brochures will be prepared, as well as clear presentations and project summaries, to be distributed to all partners. The potential knowledge and new methods developed will be disseminated to the research community including young scientists, with publications and a summer/winter school.
The PREVENT results will also be communicated to society, stakeholder and decision-makers through appropriate training workshops.
The objective of the dissemination and communication work package is to raise the awareness about the outcomes of the project and the developments that have been achieved. This work package shall ensure that the project objectives, activities and methodologies developed within the project are widely promoted to the targe groups defined by the dissemination and communication plan on a European level and beyond. A web-site, social networks, internal network and project templates will be created. A leaflet will be disseminated to all interested organizations, policy makers and professionals. Join social networks and create an internal network development. The creation and supporting of an online tool will facilitate data collection and a multilingual web platform with project tools and materials.
